We had another (cosmologically speaking) close call the other day; a piece of cosmic debris passed within half a million kilometers of the planet, a little farther than the distance to the Moon. It was previously uncatalogued, and approached us from the direction of the sun--our blind side.

If it had hit, it would have been at least as devastating as the Tonguska explosion in Siberia early last century, in which trees were leveled for miles around. Such a strike in a populated area could kill thousands, or millions.

Current estimates of the probability of such an event are one in ten million. I've previously discussed the desirability of at least doing a good sky survey to get a handle on the problem, but I'd like to talk again about a little different aspect of it.

Suppose that, after multiplying the probability times the potential damage, and getting some kind of expected value of avoidance, we do decide that this is a problem to which we should devote societal resources. Who should take care of the problem?

Many would reflexively say NASA, just because (unfortunately) NASA remains synonymous with space in many people's minds (though I'm working daily and weekly to change that perception). But NASA is an agency set up for research, development, and science--not deflecting wayward space rocks.

Well, it's a threat, so maybe we should put the Pentagon in charge. This actually makes sense, until you think about the problem a little more. If we were being attacked by ET, or Marvin the Martian or his Martian buddies, then sure, let's send the Space Patrol up there to kick some scrawny Martian butt.

But this is a natural phenomenon, not a smite from heaven at the behest of some malign intelligence (at least as far as we know). It's more like a forest fire, or a tsunami, or an earthquake, or a...flood.

A flood--yeah, that's the ticket.

It's basically just a problem of managing the whims of nature, and to the limited degree that we are capable of doing that, we have an agency in charge of such things. They build dams, and levees, and suchlike, and take preventive measures against future disastrous natural events. They're called the Army Corps of Engineers (ACE).

In addition to the fact that it seems like a natural (so to speak) role for them, the other thing that I like about the idea of using the ACE is that they could take fresh approaches--they wouldn't be bound by the institutional inertia of NASA and the Air Force Space Command in how they'd tackle the problem.

They'd have to take new approaches, because it would require different capabilities than any other space activity to date--moving minor planets. And the technology that allows us to divert asteroids to prevent them from pulverizing the neighborhood is the same technology that will allow us to utilize many of the abundant resources available in the solar system.

Finally, it would set up some competition in government space activities, which is sorely needed, and best of all, it might give them something else to do so they won't have time to build any more of those dam...err...darn dams.

[Update at 7 PM PST]

Jay Manifold has a nice report direct from the Lunar and Planetary Science Conference with the latest thoughts of planetary researchers on the subject.

I don't know about the idea of turning loose the Corps of Engineers -- it conjures up images of Earth being demolished to make way for a hyperspace bypass...

Goodbye and thaks for all the fish...

Interesting idea Rand. Have you given any consideration to free enterprise?
Maybe take ANSARI a bit farther down the rabbit trail? Allow the adventuresome to reap the spoils or perish trying? It seemed to work pretty good for the railroads 150 years ago.
$100M to orbit the Earth 10 times per occasion twice within 2 weeks, with 50million and 25 million for the 2nd and third competitors to achieve the same goal.
Next Step, 500million to keep at least 2 people at a time continuously in Earth orbit for 6 months. With $250M and $125M for the second and third competitors to get over the bar.
After that platform is developed, place 10 humans on the Moon for 1 year and earn a cool billion. $500M and $250M for second and third to join the one-year club.
Next prize, $5B for Mars Orbit, with optional $5B for having at least 10 humans spend 1 year on Mars, a standard 50% and 25% for any followers to each project.
And finally, $2B plus the earth price per kiloton, minus any kilotons lost in space after their orbits are altered, for any material placed in Mars Orbit. 2nd and third place get only the resources they can move around the solar system.
If this can be achieved without devolving into armed conflict over newly available spoils, Maybe someone will have the balls to suggest we let a businessman put megatons of metallic ore into an Earth re-entry pattern...

Spending only $12.5B for a Moon Base, Mars Base and the ability to move rocks around outer space and save our selves from oblivion!
Priceless...
Dream On FreakBoy.
Merry Xmas!