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« Back In The Saddle | Main | Alt.Space »

No New Space Race

Driving back from dropping Patricia off at the airport this morning, I was listening to Bill Handel on KFI, and they were joking about the upcoming Chinese manned launch. Their attitude was basically, it's a Chinese version of John Glenn, forty-plus years too late. Big whoop (amidst lots of crude and dumb jokes in Japanese accents--you know, "velly solly,"--they apparently don't know the difference).

Despite the hopes of some for a return to a space race and a vibrant space age that never really was, I think that this will be the reaction of the public at large as well.

Posted by Rand Simberg at October 08, 2003 11:05 AM

Comments

All the racist humor aside, if all goes as planned, in about a week China will demonstrate the ability to do something that NASA feels it cannot do for about another year; send a person into space. That should make one think.

Posted by Mark R. Whittington at October 8, 2003 01:56 PM

As well as the fact that they intend to visit both the moon and mars... I imagine people will begin to take more notice as these events occur... Especially if it takes them less than a decade to do it, which I think is entirely possible.

Posted by ken anthony at October 8, 2003 02:38 PM

Just as I clicked the post button I had another thought. I expect the chinese to use similar equipment for both a moon and mars shot. Thinking about that got me to wondering, and I haven't heard of anything about this before... could the moon be used for a gravity assist to mars? If so, what kind of time and fuel savings might be expected?

Posted by ken anthony at October 8, 2003 02:44 PM

They aren't going to "visit" the moon. They are talking about sending a unmanned probe or two. Again, something that the US and Russia did forty years ago. Nowdays anyone with enough money to send a telecom satellite to geosynch orbit can do the same, and there was even a case where a lunar looparound was used to salvage such a satellite that was placed inthe wrong orbit due to a motor malfunction.

Posted by Raoul Ortega at October 8, 2003 06:57 PM

The smug and arrogant can laugh all they want, but the sad fact is that the US space program is in decline while the Chinese space program is beginning its ascendancy.

Posted by r. r. correll at October 8, 2003 08:41 PM

...the sad fact is that the US space program is in decline while the Chinese space program is beginning its ascendancy.

If "ascendancy" means replicating things done in the US four decades ago, then we have little to worry about. Certainly the "US space program," as represented by NASA, is in decline (as it should be), but the US space industry, including the manned space industry, is about to break out of the chocks in a big way, and in a way in which China can't hope to compete, absent a major change in governmental philosophy.

Posted by Rand Simberg at October 8, 2003 09:11 PM

Rand,

I certainly hope you're right. But one thing seems clear from Chinese writings on the subject:

They are not interested in simply putting a man in space, but in creating a long-term, manned Chinese presence in space. Beginning w/ a space station, and moving onwards to the Moon.

Whether their system will last long enough to allow this to actually happen is a good question, and I agree that private enterprise, properly unleashed, can drive them into the ground (metaphorically). But in the interim, they've got a plan that they appear intent on achieving, while we're still fumbling.

Posted by Dean at October 8, 2003 11:03 PM

Only communists can do spaceflight. NASA proves that perfectly as it's a public entity paid for by the people. Even if private companies can put people in space what would be the point? LEO would get boring pretty damn quick and the Moon should be absolutely off limits as it's a symbol shared by all humanity and no one group of people should have a right to deface it for any reason.

Posted by Friend of the Moon at October 8, 2003 11:27 PM

People using this "something that we and russians did forty years ago" argument .. keep in mind that there were only 8 years between Gagarin and one famous small step for one particular human ..

Posted by at October 9, 2003 12:32 AM

What impressed me is the Chinese gave the actual day they intended to launch rather than waiting for after a successful mission to announce they went up. Shows confidence and/or openess (or a flub) that the Soviets didn't have.

Posted by ruprecht at October 9, 2003 06:18 AM

Only communists can do spaceflight.

Really? What have we been doing these past 40 years? Long trips to the desert? Fake movie studios?

NASA proves that perfectly as it's a public entity paid for by the people. Even if private companies can put people in space what would be the point? LEO would get boring pretty damn quick

I want LEO to be boring. And routine. And inexpensive. Private companies are the only entity that can make it so. What exactly is wrong with going to LEO being boring?

and the Moon should be absolutely off limits as it's a symbol shared by all humanity and no one group of people should have a right to deface it for any reason.

I don't know whether to laugh or to cry.

Posted by Steve at October 9, 2003 07:43 AM

Okay we leave the side of the Moon that faces Earth alone and I go up and start my job as lunar network weenie at Farside Station on the back side of the moon. It'll be outta sight, outta mind for Friend O'Moon and Co.

Posted by John S Allison at October 9, 2003 09:26 AM

/humor=on/ Didn't you know John? We've had a large military complex on the far side of the Moon for decades. That's why they stopped the Moon shots... didn't want anyone to get wise! /humor=off... way off/

Posted by ken anthony at October 9, 2003 10:07 AM

If we strip mined the moon it would still not be visible to the people on Earth. Put some regulations on illumination and its very possible a lunar base would be invisible to all but the highest powered telescopes. If you look at the lunar surface, even if we built a humungous base it would be insignificant in size compared to the the rest of the moon. This lunar protectionism seems niave and foolish.

Exploiting the moon is one of the better ways for us to bootstrap our way to the rest of the solar system.

Posted by ruprecht at October 9, 2003 11:27 AM

No shepard ride for them.

Posted by at October 9, 2003 12:29 PM

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=624&u=/ap/20031009/ap_on_sc/china_space&printer=1

oops

Posted by ken anthony at October 9, 2003 12:31 PM

Regarding the moon:

My wife and I often look at a new moon from our dining room window of an evening and deeply regret that there are no visible lights in the part of the surface still in night.

Mike Borgelt

Posted by Mike Borgelt at October 9, 2003 02:08 PM

On the moon comment:

?and the Moon should be absolutely off limits as it's a symbol shared by all humanity and no one group of people should have a right to deface it for any reason.?

Please look at the moon sometime using a telescope. Note what you see. It has been rather heavily defaced naturally, and that process continues. What truly amazes me about this attitude is that there is NO ENVIRONMENT TO DAMAGE there. If there is ever a place where ?environmental impact? is meaningless, Luna is it.

On China:

The big issue will be if they develop their military space capability, especially ASAT technology. The U.S. is heavily dependent on Spy Sats, GPS, and other space assets, but our ability to defend those assets is very limited. That would be one very effective way for China to counter us if we got in a big tussle. Even if they knocked out most of our space capability, they could do it without killing a single person ? Anyway, we could see a military space race out of this, though it wouldn?t really start for at least 5-10 years.

Posted by VR at October 9, 2003 03:21 PM

and the Moon should be absolutely off limits as it's a symbol shared by all humanity and no one group of people should have a right to deface it for any reason.

You simply don't have any right or rationale to assert your view of what "humankind" should do with the mon.

Posted by B.Brewer at October 9, 2003 03:39 PM


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