Transterrestrial Musings  


Amazon Honor System Click Here to Pay

Space
Alan Boyle (MSNBC)
Space Politics (Jeff Foust)
Space Transport News (Clark Lindsey)
NASA Watch
NASA Space Flight
Hobby Space
A Voyage To Arcturus (Jay Manifold)
Dispatches From The Final Frontier (Michael Belfiore)
Personal Spaceflight (Jeff Foust)
Mars Blog
The Flame Trench (Florida Today)
Space Cynic
Rocket Forge (Michael Mealing)
COTS Watch (Michael Mealing)
Curmudgeon's Corner (Mark Whittington)
Selenian Boondocks
Tales of the Heliosphere
Out Of The Cradle
Space For Commerce (Brian Dunbar)
True Anomaly
Kevin Parkin
The Speculist (Phil Bowermaster)
Spacecraft (Chris Hall)
Space Pragmatism (Dan Schrimpsher)
Eternal Golden Braid (Fred Kiesche)
Carried Away (Dan Schmelzer)
Laughing Wolf (C. Blake Powers)
Chair Force Engineer (Air Force Procurement)
Spacearium
Saturn Follies
JesusPhreaks (Scott Bell)
Journoblogs
The Ombudsgod
Cut On The Bias (Susanna Cornett)
Joanne Jacobs


Site designed by


Powered by
Movable Type
Biting Commentary about Infinity, and Beyond!

« They Blew It Again | Main | Sonic Boomlet »

Who Needs Earth?

Arnold Kling has a very good article about non-linear thinking. Nothing new (at least to me) but a cogent way of explaining the implications to those for whom it is.

Posted by Rand Simberg at October 23, 2003 08:06 PM
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.transterrestrial.com/mt-diagnostics.cgi/1860

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference this post from Transterrestrial Musings.
The Nonlinear the Better
Excerpt: Via Rand Simberg, here's an excellent essay by Arnold Kling on the subject of nonlinear thinking. Reflecting on his experiences at the recent Pop!tech conference, Kling notes that nonlinear thinking is hugely important for creating models of the future...
Weblog: The Speculist
Tracked: October 24, 2003 09:31 AM
The Nonlinear the Better
Excerpt: Via Rand Simberg, here's an excellent essay by Arnold Kling on the subject of nonlinear thinking. Reflecting on his experiences at the recent Pop!tech conference, Kling notes that nonlinear thinking is hugely important for creating models of the future...
Weblog: The Speculist
Tracked: October 24, 2003 09:31 AM
Comments

OT comment, but is anyone in space blogging circles going to attend Space Resources Roundtable this year?
Some very valuable insights, according to http://www.mines.edu/research/srr/SRR%20V%20Preliminary%20Program-1.doc

Posted by at October 24, 2003 02:31 AM

The first part of the article seems like a good explanation of why it is important for people to learn calculus. With a calc background, the answer to the bacteria question pops out immediately.

Posted by eli at October 24, 2003 08:20 AM

If the culture doubles every minute then 1 minute before it was full it must have been 1/2 full. No calculus, just logic.

Posted by Stan O at October 24, 2003 10:06 AM

Moore's Law is a very poor example of "nonlinear" thinking because first and foremost it is the successful imposition of a linear model on what was previously a nonlinear problem. That is, an exponential growth model has a linear model as its exponent! In the case of Moore's Law, the log of the transistor density is more or less a linear function of time over forty or so years.

IMHO, the problem isn't whether we're using too many linear models or not thinking nonlinearly enough. Instead, it's the insistence on simulations and paradigms that back your biases and preconceptions but fail to model reality. Ie, many of these flawed models are used not because of the simplicity of the model or the inability of the user to understand complex systems, but because the model happens to confirm the beliefs of the entities using the model.

Posted by Karl Hallowell at October 26, 2003 12:20 PM

I also have a comment on the last section:

Hearing the nonlinear thinking of Pop!tech helps to soften my concern about the future of Social Security. When economists make predictions about Social Security or Medicare, we use linear approximations. Those approximations do not take into account nanotechnology or a successful war on aging or other scenarios that were spun out at Pop!tech. What I call The Great Race seems to pale by comparison. Instead, what is uncertain is the continuity of the human race.

What if our survival in the big unknowns is in part determined by our (in)ability to properly handle the small but predictable problems? Look at US Social Security. It's a trainwreck due to occur in 2015 or perhaps a bit earlier under our "linear" predictions. I think it irresponsible to ignore those predictions merely because the future might be better than we thought or at least beyond the horizon of the current political crowd.

Posted by Karl Hallowell at October 26, 2003 12:44 PM


Post a comment
Name:


Email Address:


URL:


Comments: